We're gonna talk about three possible answers she could give.
First, she might say, "I can't stand him, and I want to have a good time." Second, she might say,[br]"Well, he's really shy, and he rarely goes to parties." And third, she might say, "He's in Beijing, and it's impossible to get here from[br]Beijing in an afternoon." The first response that she gives you does not give you a good reason to believe that Monty won't be at the party.
So "Monty's really shy" is premise one, "Monty rarely goes to[br]parties" is premise two, and the statement that[br]those premises give you reason to believe, we call[br]the argument's conclusion.
A good argument is one[br]in which the premises give you a good reason for[br]the conclusion, that is, the premises make the[br]conclusion likely to be true.
Rather, here, what it is to[br]say that a reason is good is closely tied to the notion of truth.
So a good reason for a belief is one that makes it probable, that is, it's one that makes the belief likely to be true.
So it's not morally right or morally good to believe something on[br]the basis of good reasons.
Similarly, it's not morally[br]wrong, or evil, or wicked to believe something on[br]the basis of a bad reason.
In that case, we say that the argument supports the conclusion.
Good arguments support their conclusions, and bad arguments don't[br]support their conclusions.